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John Morgan

Feb 12, 2008 Dec 04, 2008 1003 4440

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The Tape: Seahawks @ Cowboys: 2nd Half Notes

I thought I was a bit buzzed and missed the second half, but that was the second half. Not much to say as both teams looked resigned to their respective fates. The Cowboys suffering the malaise of easy victory; the Seahawks suffering the malaise of certain defeat. I remember perking up after the Marcus Trufant interception, but on second viewing why? Like most games this season, whatever the score, Seattle was getting beat, badly. Anyway, four dollars a pound.

By my count, Matt Hasselbeck threw eight passes over ten yards. In the first half, he completed a wobbler to Branch for 17. Branch had a spot between two defenders and the velocity didn't matter much. His next pass was a high arcing lob. Nice pass, but not what I'm looking for. In the second half, Hasselbeck showed some of that mid-range artillery he's famous four, uncorking a 22 yard out to Bobby Engram and a 17 yard out to John Carlson. That both were outs and both were thrown on a line is encouraging. Hasselbeck threw another zinger to Branch which was knocked away. He threw another nice fifteen yard out to Carlson in the waning seconds of the fourth. Again on a line and this time into a small and closing window. He had two true deep attempts. One was a desperation pass into double coverage intercepted by Terrence Newman. Little to fault Hasselbeck there, except, well, the decision making was pretty poor (as if it mattered) and, when was the last time Hasselbeck completed a pass that traveled 30 or more yards through the air?

Baraka Atkins recorded a quarterback hit. I think Seattle should run with its young ends and see who develops.

Josh Wilson is king of the empty blitz. All those diving misses matter though, because it forces premature passes. Now, if he could just wrap up occasionally.

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The Top Ten Seahawks Stories That Weren't: #10: Steve Vallos is a Better Center than Chris Spencer

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With this recent Mora flap fizzling - and I'm ashamed to admit I even know about it - I got to thinking, what are the top ten bogus Seahawks stories of 2008. There's been a bevy, but which ones are the absolute tops of pops?

#10

Steve Vallos is a better center than Chris Spencer.

Center Steve Vallos: For all the troubles the centers have had with their snaps during camp, Steve Vallos performed very admirably playing between Rob Sims and Mike Wahle. He did his job and did it well, getting some helps from the vetereans around him, as well as Hasselbeck.

Vallos got the backup quarterback treatment by fans and local media. Congratulated both for his most minor achievements and for starter Chris Spencer's every failing. Vallos didn't help himself in Minnesota, but proved he was barely holding on -- in the preseason. The dam broke in Chicago. Most didn't notice because few see the center unless he gaffes a snap. This good publicity led to a misinformed "Start Steve Vallos" campaign from posters blog-wide and, presumably, on that bastion of the loud, buzzed and belligerent, sports talk radio.

It took 13 weeks, but Vallos answered. And answered. And answered...

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The Tape: Seahawks @ Cowboys: 1st Half Notes

With all the talk about the size mismatch enjoyed by Terrell Owens and Roy Williams over Josh Wilson and Kelly Jennings, it was Jason Witten who led Dallas in yards, DYAR, receptions and effective yards. Seattle doesn't defend tight ends and that's a bit Leroy Hill and equally, if not more, Deon Grant. Grant is mismatched in man coverage. And the why is almost too obvious.

Grant is a heady pass defender at his best reading the quarterback and breaking on the ball. He has the same habits playing man. In zone, that leads to coverage, pass defenses and interceptions. In man, that leads to blown coverage, big cushions and long receptions. Grant should be playing free safety. He's not a run stopper and he doesn't match well in man. He excels at the deep zone and is strong tackling downhill from the second and third level. The essence of good management is identifying, developing and enabling strengths. The last two seasons, Seattle has played Grant against his strengths for the sake of starting Brian Russell.

Hobbs looks like a keeper on special teams. He recorded the first tackle of the game, a one armed hook on Orlando Scandrick.

How dependent is Seattle on Olindo Mare? Seattle has allowed an average of 27.23 yards in the 31 kicks Mare didn't achieve a touchback. That puts "Seattle Opponent" a full yard ahead of Josh Cribbs (26.21). Mare won't be back next season.

Lawrence Jackson is beginning to show a little life. He's getting off the ball well and actually showing some fight against opposing tackles. Jackson is still with training wheels as a pass rusher, but then so is pretty much every rookie defensive end. Jackson trails only Chris Long in tackles and sacks among defensive ends selected in the first day of the 2008 NFL draft. On one play, Seattle attempted to stunt Jackson to the inside. He was S.L.O.W off the snap, flat and deliberate to the inside and ineffective on the inside rush. The skills aren't there, but it's been a while since I've seen Jackson really not try. There's reason to think the skills will develop.

On the second snap of the game, Owens pushed off Marcus Trufant and caught a pass for nine. Trufant stood stony, pantomiming "WTF?" I don't get why Owens gets the superstar treatment or how it helps the NFL, but fans across the league are surely sick of watching their corners play pushed-off coverage against Dallas.

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After Holmgren, the Flood

Gerry Butler sent me this cool graphic. It shows each team's win total from 2001 to 2007. He color coded season to season variations thus:

 Green- Good Season immediately followed or preceded by a bad season

Yellow- Bad season immediately followed or preceded by a good season

Red- Bad season directly preceded by a good, then a bad, in that order.  Signifies a downward spiral.

Gray- Anomalies to the trend in both good (NE) and bad (Arizona, Detroit, Houston)

With "Good" and "Bad" seasons defined as:

Good Season- 9 or more wins (or playoffs.  Hard to determine with STL 2004)

Bad Season- 7 or less wins (8 wins if team won 11 or more games in the season preceding or following)

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The ebb and flow of the NFL. Seattle will most likely end with two to four wins. Of the twenty five team seasons with four or fewer wins, fifteen finished the following season with a losing record, three ended at eight and eight and seven finished above five hundred. Only the 2004 Chargers won more than 10 games and only seven total won more than ten games in either of the next two seasons.

Seattle's last seven seasons have been special. Built on a well constructed offense and buttressed by a weak division. That run is over. Seattle is now building towards its next great team. That won't likely arrive in 2009. That won't likely arrive in 2010. Fans need to have a little faith. The NFL is cyclical.

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What to do with Mike Wahle?

Ten months ago I entitled a post Sign Mike Wahle. Two days later, Seattle signed Mike Wahle. There was much rejoicing. The move looked very solid. Wahle did not need to be a Pro Bowl guard to dramatically improve Seattle's offensive line. Moving Rob Sims from left to right and replacing Chris Gray improved two positions.

That didn't happen. Wahle, Sims and Gray are now all out for the season. Gray is enjoying paid retirement. Sims is cheap, young and still in the mix for right guard next season. Wahle, well...

Wahle had his moments in the sun:

The play is a sweep left with Mike Wahle pulling. Wahle is running up and wide, attempting to get in front of Jones and provide a lead block in the second level, but Wahle recognizes Patrick Willis breaking on Jones and cuts up field, engaging Willis. Wahle rides Willis, and Jones turns the corner. Willis - who is, if we can shed our homerism for a second, pretty damn awesome - disengages from Wahle and tackles Jones after seven.

At the snap, the Rams blitz seven. Walter Jones blocks hard in, Mike Wahle drops back but delays his pull, Chris Spencer pulls into the second level, engaging Will Witherspoon, and Carlson locks down Pisa Tinoisamoa. Julius Jones runs up behind Jones, Wahle completes his pull dominating Bartell, Jones cuts out, cuts back behind Tinoisamoa and enters the third level with only three to beat. His wending, 32 yard rush is a legitimate third gear from pay dirt.

And his false starts, holds and pass protection problems:

[W]hen Justin Tuck moved into the interior, it was on the defensive right side opposite Mike Wahle. Tuck handled Wahle, getting two play changing pressures of the instant variety. Wahle is not as good a pass blocker as Rob Sims and it shows. His feet are good and he's an asset in the run game, but all things considered, I sort of misses Sims' steadiness. People remember the big gaffes, but I watched Sims be a rock almost all season and the time he afforded Matt Hasselbeck was crucial for Seattle's passing game.

In ten games started, Wahle allowed 3.5 sacks. Quarterbacks usually avoid a sack allowed by a guard because the pressure typically arrives from the front. Wahle's 3.5 sacks allowed represents a fraction of the pressures, incompletes and quarterback hits allowed by Wahle. Over 26 games in the past two seasons, Wahle has allowed 8 sacks. That's a lot of blown block in pass pro.

The pass protection problems are real and with Seattle rebuilding, an expensive, declining left guard seems an expense unworthy of keeping. Wahle is guaranteed 5.5 million, all of which has been paid. If Seattle becomes the second team to cut Wahle in two seasons, it will be on the hook for more than 2.33 million in dead money, but will save 1.94 million in cap space. That doesn't seem much to save for a team without a true successor at left guard. Cutting Wahle, at least cutting Wahle before the draft, commits Seattle to either drafting a starter-ready replacement or signing another retread. Should that retread be talented, given the market for guards, he would be extremely expensive.

The smarter move would be to retain Wahle and attempt to restructure his contract. Seattle should have leverage given his recent injuries. Seattle needs an upgrade at left guard, but why limit its options in the draft? Why cut talent without gaining much salary flexibility? A cut would seem more punitive than practical. Don't cut Mike Wahle.

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Tanking It

Let's shake off the food and booze haze and talk Hawks. A Sunday without Seahawks football felt lonely. At the same time, I can't stomach re-watching Thursday's tape. I hope to overcome that by tomorrow, because understanding a season requires autopsy of intestine along with heart and brain. A friend of mine who recently started scuba diving related why he'd never cave dive, invoking the image of smashing his headlamp, sitting in watery darkness awaiting suffocation or, for the optimistic, drowning. That's a non sequitor for those who missed Thursday. For those who watched Dallas extend Seattle's season point deficit to 95 in the coldest and most routine of fashions might wonder if they packed a dive knife.

So what it is. Should Seattle tank and take the sure top five pick or play for pride and escape the absolute cellar? It's an interesting question easily done disservice. Realistically, a team can't tank. It can't choose to lose for fear of injury, league punishment and permanently alienating its fans. The question is rather, should Seattle fans root for Seattle to lose out?

They won't overtake Detroit. The Lions are awful, have a two game advantage and face a difficult remaining schedule. With four tough games remaining, Detroit has an excellent chance of achieving 0-16. The Bengals are an easier catch. Assuming Seattle loses out, the Bengals would only have to win once in the final four to eclipse the Hawks. What Ohioan could foresee such consequences from kissing his sister? Kansas City also has a fatal flaw: a punishing strength of schedule. A quaint screwji written into the NFL draft breaks ties by awarding the higher pick to the team with the weaker strength of schedule. The battle between Saint Louis and Seattle should be decided in week 15 with the winner losing a spot in the draft while the loser considers rock bottom.

Seattle's a shoe in for a top five pick. The merits of keeping that pick make for a long, ongoing offseason discussion. The pick becomes more valuable if Seattle is slotted behind teams not interested in a quarterback. Historically, the first quarterback drafted significantly outperforms the second quarterback taken in terms of playing time and performance. Seattle is safe behind Cincinnati, Oakland and probably Kansas City, but could lose out to Detroit or Saint Louis. Marc Bulger is only 31 and isn't broken so much as disarmed. The Rams probably shouldn't but still might draft a quarterback. The Lions drafted Drew Stanton with their second round pick in the 2007 draft. Stanton can't seem to stay healthy and is currently sitting behind freelance sports agent Daunte Culpepper.

If Seattle is targeting a quarterback and unlikely to overtake its greatest rival for that position, it doesn't make much sense for Seattle to tank because it'll likely end up with the same options at five as two. And because Walter Jones is two years from retirement, still playing at a high level, and because the short learning curve typical of left tackles, Seattle doesn't need to target a left tackle. I shrink to type that, but I think it's true. Seattle, above all else, needs a quarterback of the future. It may never have a better opportunity. But rather than hope a Seahawks team that badly needs to show some life tanks, fans are stuck in the uncomfortable and detached position of rooting for opponent quarterbacks to show at all.

The best bet Seattle has at drafting Sam Bradford, and with each game Bradford looks more and more like the nation's top quarterback, is for Stanton and Bulger to play well. It's a weird and awkward position befitting this season. Whoever Seattle drafts will be risky and expensive. And I, for one, am not so much excited for this year's draft as dreading it. My hope, my sincerest hope, is Seattle can tempt the Vikings, near desperate for a quarterback but in line for a winning record, to swap picks. The Vikings may be emboldened after trading a first and two third round picks for Jared Allen. Allen has played well and Minnesota is charging towards a division title. A wealth of picks, collectively less expensive than a single fourth overall pick; a second round pick to trade for Brian Brohm, a mid first round pick to snag help desperately needed at guard--

I'm carrying on. Oh, the fantasy of the draft! If only the real draft were so sweet.

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Seattle's Accursed Season Never Ending: The Draft

Seattle is 2-10. If it wins out - it won't - it could scrape to achieve 6-10. Realistically, Seattle will finish the season 3-13 or 4-12. Scanning the contenders, Seattle should draft as early as third and definitely within the top five. That certainly excites some. Maybe it shouldn't.

The first ten picks demand some of the highest salaries in the NFL. That burdens the worst teams in the NFL in two ways. A bust is a disaster. The contract forces teams to start unworthy players and often at keystone positions. Top ten picks must also be sufficiently better to justify their salary. That requires scouting accuracy I've yet seen.

There's an exception to this theory. Marquee players at positions that don't fall, mostly offensive tackle and quarterback, are typically very scarce past the top fifteen. Seattle needs both. So how should Seattle negotiate this draft: Target the best available tackle or quarterback, undertake a huge salary, but potentially draft that Walter Jones or Peyton Manning to build their franchise around? Or aggressively trade down, even accepting bargains, and stockpile cheaper picks while retaining cap flexibility?

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Quick Cap: Cowboys 34 - Seahawks 9

These are the seasons that test our fandom. If you're still reading this site, you're obviously hardcore.

So what can we take from today?

Being fired up doesn't make a player play better. Sorry for the thousands who bought into some moronic revenge angle and started Julius Jones this week.

I'll leave the rest for another day. Happy Thanksgiving all.

Game Ball: John Carlson is an exceptional tight end. If he makes a second year jump typical of tight ends, he should contend for the Pro Bowl next season. When I watched him in college, I had no questions about his hands. So when he had a string of drops a few weeks back, I was sure it was a hiccup on the way to becoming a great tight end. Excluding a tip, Carlson converted six of six targets. His performance, especially in light of Seattle's terrible pass offense, is something special.

Feel Good Performance: Baraka Atkins with a tackle for a loss, a hustle tackle after eleven and hit on Tony Romo. He's coming along.

Discussion: Can Seattle properly give experience to and audition its young offensive talent with anyone under center other than Matt Hasselbeck?

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Game Thread: Seahawks @ Cowboys

Sunday represented definitive evidence that Matt Hasselbeck is in decline. No. There's a powerful counterargument that's as Anne as the nose on plain's face:

Washington's Starting Secondary

SS 24 Shawn Springs

RCB 22 Charles Rogers

LCB 27 Fred Smoot

FS 30 Laron Landry

Nickel and dime formations included:

CB 23 Deangelo Hall

That's as talented a collection of coverage defensive backs as any team in the NFL or any team of recent memory. It's an explanation that accounts for all of Hasselbeck's failures: the too generous spacing on passes, the long holds and double clutches, the interceptions, the incompletions, the pass defenses appearing on sure completions--

Well not all. There are the persisting problems of errant passes and the rest of the season. Let's play blind man. Let's say we want Matt Hasselbeck to be fine, in the midst of a late career swoon, but primed to bounce back. Let's start with the conclusion we want and find evidence to back it.

  • The first four games can be accounted for by a poor and inexperienced receiver corps.
  • The game against Arizona can be accounted for by the first week back from injury.

That's not terribly unreasonable. It certainly doesn't account for just how bad Hasselbeck has played, but the excuses are plausible.

The Cowboys' pass defense is predicated on pressure. Its secondary is not playing well. Among types of targets, the Cowboys are only above average at defending #1 wide receivers. At all other positions, Dallas is average or below average.

Seattle is thin at #1, but deep at all other receiver positions. Matt Hasselbeck's read seems intact. If he hasn't lost too much arm strength and accuracy for it to matter, he should find targets today. If he doesn't, if he again cripples his team with ineffectiveness, plays like he's hurt whatever news to the contrary, the time to IR him is now and the time to draft a quarterback of the future near.

Continue reading this post »

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Matt Hasselbeck's Bad Day: The Conclusion

Before I get any farther, happy Thanksgiving for those who celebrate. I'm thankful for the Seahawks however bad, a job that allows me to do this and still support my family, and the fans who love this team and love football like I do. Thanks for reading.

We'll have a game thread up tomorrow, but I leave town on Friday. I can't promise much in the way of posts before Monday. Home teams do get calls, and I expect Dallas's holds to be forgiven and Seattle's interference to be flagged. I expect a better team getting healthy to pave its way to the playoffs through an inferior team playing out the stretch. And I expect Hasselbeck to play better or not make it through the contest. I'll explain why in a second.

Let's get to business.

Play Seventeen:

3-12-SEA 32 (5:23) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep right intended for 18-K.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 30-L.Landry [92-D.Evans] at SEA 48. 30-L.Landry to SEA 35 for 13 yards (20-M.Morris).

Seattle sets WR (Right), WR (Left), TE (Left), I formation.

Washington sets in a 4-3.

Washington blitzes six.

The blitz is mostly picked up, but Porkchop is struggling with Evans.

Matt Hasselbeck has three seconds in the pocket before he throws.

Carlson runs a square in.

Weaver runs into the flat.

Morris picks up Horton. (Good blocking game by Morris)

Robinson runs a curl.

The pocket is morphing left, Hasselbeck doesn't step up, but sidesteps and throws side armed.

The ball sails five yards in from Robinson.

Landry makes a diving catch for the interception.

Prognosis: An errant throw boomerangs as Landry shows his range with a diving interception. The weird side arm throw isn't new to Hasselbeck's arsenal. A superlative DB makes him pay.

Play Eighteen:

1-10-SEA 38 (3:19) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 20-M.Morris to SEA 42 for 4 yards (52-R.McIntosh).

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), 2 WR (Right), Rb.

The receivers are bunched tight.

Washington sets in a 4-3.

Inside left receiver Engram runs into the flat.

Inside right receiver Carlson runs a ten yard out.

Outside right receiver runs a China.

Morris runs into the right flat.

Hasselbeck reads left, middle, right and then underthrows Morris.

Morris picks from his shoe tops and is tackled after a net gain of four.

Prognosis: Morris is wide open and the underthrow limits yards after catch.

Play Nineteen:

3-5-WAS 44 (:32) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short right to 83-D.Branch to WAS 33 for 11 yards (22-C.Rogers).

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), WR (Right), TE (Right), Rb.

Washington sets in a 4-2 nickel.

Engram, slot left, calls out opposing corner Springs' blitz.

Springs blitzes.

Washington blitzes five.

Taylor (Left) and Branch (Right) run slants.

Hasselbeck makes one read and delivers a strike to Branch's outside shoulder.

Branch catches, first down.

Prognosis: Hasselbeck makes his read, sees Branch's step and delivers a perfect pass where only Branch can catch, but where Branch can catch it without acrobatics.

Play Twenty: The "Wobbler"

1-10-WAS 33 (15:00) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete deep middle to 83-D.Branch (22-C.Rogers).

Seattle sets WR (Left), WR (Right), TE (Right), I formation.

Washington sets in a 4-3.

Weaver runs into the flat.

Carlson runs a post.

Robinson runs a go.

Branch runs a twenty yard square in.

Weaver is wide open in the left flat.

Branch has a half step on Rogers.

Hasselbeck looks off left, throws middle.

Matt Vasgersian calls it a "wobbler".

The ball does in fact wobble twice.

Rogers comes over top Branch and swats the ball away.

Prognosis: It's tight coverage and an incompletion isn't a huge failure, but the pass is disturbingly slow. Hasselbeck throws from the 46. Branch is at the 14. It's a 32 yard pass to the center of the field; a pass an NFL quarterback should be able to make.

Play Twenty One:

2-10-WAS 33 (14:54) 22-J.Jones up the middle to WAS 31 for 2 yards (48-C.Horton). 

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), WR (Right), Split backs.

Washington sets in a 4-2 nickel.

Weaver runs into the flat

Jones runs a center curl.

Branch runs a square in.

Engram runs a post.

Hasselbeck reads right, center, left, center and passes.

The throw wobbles once but finds its mark; Engram for 21.

Prognosis: It works, mostly  because Engram runs a pristine route, but for the second play Hasselbeck's throw hardly inspires confidence.

Play Twenty Two:

2-17-SEA 31 (8:03) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass short left to 86-C.Taylor to SEA 37 for 6 yards (24-S.Springs).

Seattle sets WR (Left), 2 WR (Left), SB.

Washington in a 4-2 nickel.

Washington blitzes McIntosh from the left and Smoot from the outside right.

Linebacker Blades buzzes right (offensive left).

Taylor (Left), sees the blitz, stops and awaits Beck's pass.

Beck underthrows Taylor.

Springs, playing safety, sprints from the third level and tackles Taylor.

Prognosis: The undethrow again limits yard after catch.

Play Twenty Three:

3-11-SEA 37 (7:22) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass incomplete short right to 84-B.Engram [48-C.Horton].

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), 2 WR (Right), Rb.

Washington sets in a 4-1 dime.

McIntosh and Horton blitz from the offensive right.

No one picks it up.

Horton hits Hasselbeck.

Hasselbeck throws it kinda near Engram.

Horton low bridges Spencer.

Spencer falls on Hasselbeck.

Prognosis: Not sure how they missed that blitz. Horton comes untouched without anyone missing an assignment. Horton plays linebacker via safety, so it's not like his intention were obscured.

Play Twenty Four: The End

1-10-SEA 22 (1:28) 8-M.Hasselbeck pass deep left intended for 18-K.Robinson INTERCEPTED by 24-S.Springs at SEA 44. 24-S.Springs to SEA 44 for no gain.

Seattle sets 2 WR (Left), WR (Right), TE (Right), RB

Washington sets in a 4-2.

Inside left receiver Engram runs into the flat.

Branch runs a China.

Carlson runs a corner route.

Morris runs into the right flat,

And Koren Robinson...

Prognosis: It's hard to know exactly what route Robinson was running, because he hadn't run it at the time of Hasselbeck's pass. Robinson looks befuddled and entirely unready. Hasselbeck stares down Robinson from the snap, and it's little wonder someone was ready to jump the route. This is play call confusion, and no matter how dire the outcome, not very telling of what's wrong with Seattle's offense or what's wrong with Seattle's quarterback.

Conclusions: Matt Hasselbeck's ability to throw short and mid, once the foundation of his arsenal, has declined so quickly it almost defies explanation. The short pass has haunted Hasselbeck all season. The mid range pass has been spotty, but never this bad. Hasselbeck is making some bad reads, but the greater problem is he's not completing the right reads he makes. He can no longer make "all the throws". Declining arm strength might explain his lacking velocity on mid range throws, but underthrowing receivers short could be rust or simply an aberration.

Mike Holmgren implemented a pared down playbook for much of the contest. It kept Seattle competitive. Did Holmgren do so to protect Hasselbeck? And if Hasselbeck is not fully healthy, why would he start for a 2-9 team?

I think Hasselbeck's lost touch and arm strength are symptomatic of his ailing back. If he's recovering, that will begin to return to normal over the remainder of the season. If it's not, and I don't see how playing football would expedite recovery, defenses will slowly narrow their coverage to where Hasselbeck can throw. Dallas should saturate the middle of the field, the half circle that extends twenty five yards in all direction from the pocket, and challenge Hasselbeck to beat them deep and on the edges. If they do, and, well, there's no guarantee they will, Hasselbeck could further decline. His effective range taken away, Hasselbeck will be forced to throw into coverage or take hits. For Seattle,the alternative is a continued emphasis on the short passing game. Dallas is superficially weak defending receiving running backs. If that's the lone weapon Seattle has, they will not continue to be.

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